The Trend Forecaster's Handbook: Martin Raymond

> THE ANATOMY OF TREND

The

> THE TREND FORECASTER'S TOOLKIT

Trend

> INTUITIVE FORECASTING

Forecaster's

> NETWORK FORECASTING

Handbook

> CULTURAL TRIANGULATION

Martin Raymond

> SCENARIO PLANNING


MARTIN, R (2010) 'THE TREND FORECASTER'S HANDBOOK', LONDON, LAURENCE KING PUBLISHING LTD


Some notes from The Trend Forecaster's Handbook by Martin Raymond, a pretty specialist book regarding how to be a good trend forecaster - not fully related to my project. But as I'm speculating on the need, opportunity or evidence of a new International Style due to a change in culture I felt this book may be useful to gain more in-depth knowledge on how trends are forecast and the different stages.



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          Notes
          Analysis

'I'm losing my edge to the Internet seekers who can tell me every member of every good group from 1962 to 1978. I'm losing my edge. To all the kids in Tokyo and Berlin. I'm losing my edge to the art-school Brooklynites in little jackets and borrowed nostalgia for the unremembered eighties.' 

James Murphy, LCD Soundsystem =- p12

'To be a trend forecaster, it is vitally important to know what a 'trend' is. It is not, as some people think, a term exclusively associated with the world of fashion. Nor is it a term that simply refers to processes which affect physical or aesthetic changes in our culture. A trend can be emotional, intellectual and even spiritual. At its most basic, a trend can be defined as the direction in which something (and that something can be anything) tends to move and which has a consequential impact on the culture, society or business sector through which it moves.'
-p14 

'The word's 'style' or 'movement' are sometimes used to describe these changes or shifts, but strictly speaking a style is a distinctive manner, aesthetic, method or way of expressing something 'new' (in design, fashion, architecture, etc.), while a trend is the 'direction' in which something new or different moves. 

A style then is about difference, while a trend is about difference and the direction along which that difference travels.' -p14

Trend Model

Anti-Innovators are similar to the anti-design movement which has come to prominence in recent years, as a progression of 'post-modernism', people adhering to doing 'wrong' design as a means of rebellion.

CROSS CULTURAL ANALYSIS

'Cross-Cultural analysis' is the term used by forecasters to describe how they 'graze' across cultures and different industry sectors to determine if a trend spotted in one industry is beginning to emerge in another. If it is, they know they are looking at a trend that is set to become long-term and highly influential.' - p43

Ease of communication and influence due to the internet, a progression of communication from telegraph, radio, tv etc.  Also made it easier to trend forecast.

'There is another component, however to this kind of approach. While never consciously considering trends, she is, 'forever analysing and absorbing cultural indicators. This happens because I travel a lot, attending trade fairs, but it is also because the Internet has made us more aware of each other, of what we are thinking, feeling, and you absorb and meditate on this.' - p54

Individuals within a trend - 


__ Innovators (those who are instigating the chance)
__ Trendsetters (those Early Adopters who are making these part of their lives - in different industries, if this is the case)
__ Trend spotters (other futurists, edge observers and cross-cultural analysts who are marking these changes at their nascent stages)
__ Trend analysts (sociologists, ethnographers, psychologists, etc., who clearly articulate the 'why' of a trend)
__ Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards (to test how far the trend has penetrated to mainstream thinking, and within which areas or social income brackets)

Collaborative Networks, ideas have much more reach and larger exposure. Ease of communication
'Collaborative networks tend to have more, newer and fresher ideas flowing through them. In terms of reach and influence they also tend to be more powerful as regards the ideas they contain. As these ideas are less regulated and controlled by a single person, they tend to be less tainted by that person's views, prejudices and preconception.' -p105

Triangulation. Two methods/concept from a possible three arrive at a similar conclusion...

'Triangulation' is a term derived from the social sciences, where it is used to describe a process by which two methods out of a possible three are used to arrive at the same conclusion, with a view to making sure that the conclusion is the right one.'  - p122

'Cultural triangulation can also be described as a way of tracing or validating changes taking place in the culture by using one method (quantitative surveys for instance) to test, prove or validate another method (observation or intuition). ' - p122